Time to Buy or Sell a Loft in Downtown Los Angeles?

Where is Downtown Los Angeles Real Estate in the market cycle?  DTLA is different from most real estate markets. Downtown has most recently been approximately 1 year late in the down cycle and 1 year early in the up cycle.  Downtown did not experience the rapid deceleration until 2009, and then experienced an early, dramatic uptick in home prices by the end of 2012. It is important to know that those who rely on the national financial news to help make real estate decisions for Downtown are bound to be a year off the mark for market timing.

Because we receive reports every day from real buyers, sellers and renters on the streets of Downtown, and in the lofts of Los Angeles, the L.A. Loft Blog has proven to be the only resource for timely, powerful and accurate real estate news with market timing and market calls for the past 5 years. Of course, prospective home buyers and investors must rely on their own research, as the L.A. Loft Blog is but one tool out of many to help figure out the unpredictable nature of markets.

Below are three similar versions of market cycle charts. On the emotion scale of the first chart, Downtown Los Angeles is today at the Optimism phase based on the volume of reports to the L.A. Loft Blog. Still in the cautiously optimistic phase, home buyers are still motivated largely by caution.  As the need for caution wanes, Downtown will enter the excitement phase, likely right after the U.S. experiences an unexpected stock market upswing in 2016/2017.

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On the 2nd chart, Downtown Los Angeles is also at the Optimism level.

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On the Michael A. Kupritz chart, Downtown L.A. is still in the “Get in on the Boom” phase, but is no where near the “Prices Will Rise Forever” phase.  The sentiment still has too much caution and too many saying “Don’t Trust the Rally.”

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LOFT & CONDO LISTINGS DOWNTOWN L.A.  [MAP]

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Copyright © 2015 This free information provided courtesy L.A. Loft Blog and LAcondoInfo.com with information provided by Corey Chambers, Realty Source Inc, BRE#01889449 We are not necessarily associated with the home owner’s association, seller or developer. For more information, contact (213) 880-9910 or visit LAcondoInfo.com Licensed in California. All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. This article represents just one opinion. Markets are unpredictable. Properties subject to prior sale or rental. This is not a solicitation if buyer or seller is already under contract with another broker.

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Downtown Rent Prices Set to Explode

Today’s MLS data reports that the average Downtown rent has increased from $2,606 ($2,400 median) in the last half of 2013 to $3,021 ($2,725 median) currently. That’s $300 to $400 per month more rent today than just 2 years ago.  Unfortunately, that is just the beginning.

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Think Downtown Los Angeles rent prices are already high?  Wait a few years.  While we are dazzled by the amazing transformation of Downtown into the most exciting place on earth, the average Downtown rent will hit $4,000 in the blink of an eye.  The Atlantic reports that over the next 10 years, the rental population in the U.S. will climb by about 4 million people. And that growth rate pales in comparison to the blistering speed of Downtown population growth.

Census Bureau data puts DTLA’s 2000 population at 27,849 people, but the 2013 total (according to the Los Angeles Downtown Center Business Improvement District) almost doubled, reaching 52,400, says KPCC.

Of the  57 residential construction projects currently under way in Downtown Los Angeles, only 3 are condominiums for sale.  Investors are placing billions into rental communities because their projections show huge profits coming at the expense of renters over the next 10 to 20 years.  No developers have converted new condo lofts in Downtown in more than 2 years. And none have plans to convert any more soon.

Those who think it is cool to rent now and buy later will unfortunately find that home prices will rise in a corresponding manner, locking out the average buyer. Only the wealthy will be able to purchase a nice place, and only the wealthy will be able to easily afford to rent an attractive loft or apartment.  The average renter will be forced to spend more than 30% of income on rent, or live with additional roommates.

LOFT & CONDO LISTINGS DOWNTOWN L.A.  [MAP]

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Corey Chambers, Realty Source Inc, BRE#01889449